Proposals to build new Canadian pipelines have faced multiple challenges over recent years that have seen projects delayed or derailed repeatedly — and those challenges could offer clues into some of the issues developers behind the newly announced project from Alberta to B.C.’s coast will need to tackle.
From financial hurdles, including proving the project can actually make a profit, to consulting with Indigenous communities and navigating environmental regulations and fees, these projects are seldom easy to get started.
They can also take several years to get built and become operational.
“Even if there were a business standing up today saying, ‘We’re shovel ready, let’s get going,’ by the time you get all the permits, by the time that you deal with all of just the basic stuff, let alone the outside forces that might try and disrupt the process, we’re still talking about the mid-2030s before we see a pipeline,” says Moshe Lander, a professor of economics at Concordia University.
Here’s what was announced.
Details of the new pipeline were announced Thursday night from Calgary for a new Alberta pipeline proposal that will send oil to B.C.’s Roberts Bank Terminal, near Richmond in the south of the province.
The new pipeline is estimated to cost between $35.2 billion and $43.7 billion, according to the project submission package, and will run almost entirely along the same path as the current Trans Mountain Expansion pipeline.
The Trans Mountain Corporation will also be planning and constructing the new pipeline.
The Pembina Pipeline Corporation will act as a private sector partner in the new pipeline. The company said in a statement that it has a 10 per cent stake during the construction phase and that it may increase its stake to 20 per cent once the pipeline comes online, and hopes to sign definitive agreements by September.
Prime Minister Mark Carney said Thursday that Pembina “will bring its private sector expertise, its capital discipline to the construction and operation of the pipeline.”
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith said she thinks it’s a possible full private sector takeover of the project could occur down the line.
Based on some of the biggest Canadian oil pipelines currently operating and recent proposals that failed, here are some of the key challenges the new Alberta project will have to grapple with.
One of the biggest challenges a company or government faces when getting a pipeline from the proposal phase to construction is convincing all stakeholders that the project will be commercially viable — will it consistently make more money than it costs over the long-term?
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The Trans Mountain Expansion pipeline is one of Canada’s largest oil pipelines by capacity and the largest one that sends oil to the West Coast. It took more than a decade to get the project up and running from its initial proposal stage in 2012 before oil started flowing in 2024.
TMX wound up costing $34 billion once oil started flowing and after Ottawa purchased it in 2018 for $4.5 billion, with some of those delays translating to higher costs for the company and taxpayers.
Since oil started flowing through the pipeline, oil exports via Canada’s West Coast doubled in 2025, and oil extraction and exports also contributed to higher GDP in April 2026.
Despite how much its costs ballooned, Carney pointed out Thursday during the announcement of the new pipeline proposal that the existing Trans Mountain pipeline is “highly profitable.”
Demand for Canadian oil and other resources has increased over the past few years since Russia launched a war with Ukraine and after the war in the Middle East this year. Although the latter has seen tensions somewhat ease in recent weeks after a peace agreement was signed.
But these pipelines take a long time to build, so just because there is a certain level of demand now doesn’t automatically reflect what the demand levels will be in the future.
“Where are we going to be a decade from now? What’s global demand going to look like?” says Lander.
Most of these pipeline proposals involve running pipeline infrastructure through Indigenous communities and land claims and a lack of proper consultation — as required under the Constitution Act — with these groups in the past have led to lengthy delays or derailed them altogether.
For the original TMX pipeline, the project faced years of delays due, in part, to insufficient consultation.
In 2018, the Federal Court of Appeals overturned Ottawa’s approval of TMX, ruling the federal government failed to engage in meaningful consultations with First Nations groups.
While TMX was eventually completed, the Northern Gateway proposal was scrapped after similar consultation failures and cost Enbridge a net $373 million.
“What’s been demonstrated a couple of times in B.C. is the federal government didn’t understand its obligation to consult with Indigenous groups,” says Richard Masson, former CEO of the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission.
Smith and Carney said the new pipeline project has opportunities for Indigenous ownership and that details will come. The submission package says the proposed route will go through the traditional territories of as many as 125 Indigenous communities.
It says the province consulted some First Nations before Thursday’s announcement, though it notes many were consulted under the premise that Alberta would be pitching a route to the northern coast rather than the southern one.
Carney said consultations with First Nations on the new route would begin immediately.
Smith said the proposal will be submitted to the federal government’s Major Projects Office in Calgary as a “project of national interest,” which could see approval by a deadline of Oct. 1, 2026.
Carney’s new Major Projects Office was launched as a way to help fast-track federal approvals and expedite construction for “projects of national interest,” but overlooking any consultations with Indigenous groups presents substantial legal and logistical challenges.
“You can’t skip that piece through this Major Projects Office because it’s beyond the federal government’s legal framework — this is Indigenous inherent rights,” says Masson.
If the federal government overlooks First Nations communities, Masson says, “then they’re very likely to end up in court, which just adds to the complexity and delays the whole thing.”
Whether it’s expanding or building new pipelines, more oil production ultimately means higher emissions, which also raises costs to businesses under the industrial carbon tax.
Unlike the consumer carbon price, which was reduced to zero in 2025, businesses like oil companies must factor in these commercial taxes that are mostly still in place when budgeting their operations or when considering investing in new pipelines or expanding capacity.
When considering the cost of emissions and new pipeline proposals, Masson says, “the oil sands companies are not keen right now because the cost of that is high.”
Those federally regulated industrial carbon taxes were reduced in Alberta under a new framework announced earlier this year, in addition to the province scrapping its own increase to the tax, but it isn’t clear if that’s sparked confidence in businesses to invest more in pipelines.
Although Canada is still committed to Paris climate agreement goals to significantly reduce emissions by 2030, Carney said earlier this week that his government’s new energy plan will mean higher emissions.
At the same time, Carney hasn’t indicated if there will be any further changes to the industrial carbon tax.
Working to offset emissions could help oilsands producers save some costs from these taxes.
Smith and Carney also announced Thursday that they are close to finalizing an agreement with the Oil Sands Alliance for its Pathways carbon capture project. Last year’s energy deal between Carney and Smith made her pipeline conditional on advancements on the carbon capture deal.
Still, the overall uncertainty surrounding these costs and environmental regulations may give producers some pause about increasing production or investing in new pipeline projects.
– with files from Global’s Amy Judd and Ken MacGillivray, and The Canadian Press
