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Russia threatens to cut gas to Europe through Ukraine

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CNN business

Europe is preparing for further cuts in its supply. Russian natural gas Moscow has threatened to cut flows to Moldova, a country on Ukraine’s southwest border.

Russia’s state-owned gas giant Gazprom said Tuesday It will cut shipments to Ukraine from Monday following disputed allegations that it is withholding some of its gas.

An official Telegram account said the company would cut gas flow It passes through a transit point in Suja equal to the amount Ukraine claims is preventing it from reaching Moldova.

“The amount of gas supplied by Gazprom

(GZPFY)
The volume of transmissions to GIS Sudzha for transit to Moldova through Ukrainian territory exceeds the physical volume transmitted on the border between Ukraine and Moldova.

Ukraine denies withholding gas supplies to neighboring countries. Ukraine’s state-owned energy company Naftogaz said on Tuesday: Tweet “Gazprom accused Ukraine of stealing gas. Again. In short, this is not true.”

The Ukrainian Gas Transmission System Operator (GTSOU) said in a statement that all Russian gas was received at the Suja entrance for transport to Moldova. had been transferred End points along a shared boundary.

The operator said Moldova had “effectively reversed” some of its Russian gas imports into Ukraine, but did not give reasons.

Such reverses are common commercial contracts in which some of the gas directed to a particular location is diverted to storage or sold to another buyer, analysts said.

“This is not the first time Russia has used gas as a means of political pressure. It is manipulating facts to justify its decision to further limit gas supplies to European countries,” said GTSOU. said Olga Bielkova, head of government and international affairs.

Henning Groustein, director of energy, climate and resources at the Eurasia Group, told CNN Business that Moldova “had stored some of its gas in Ukraine in the past…so it’s possible that Ukraine is holding it in Ukraine.” There is no basis for the allegations,” he said.

moldova It is not a member of the European Union, but is applying for membership.

Russia supplies Moldova with about 5 million cubic meters of gas per day. That’s a tiny fraction of the gas the European Union uses to power homes and businesses on a daily basis, data from the Independent Commodity Information Service shows.

However, this move Supply of gas to the European Union One of two routes Russia is supplying the block with gas via pipelines, via Ukraine. Russia also sends gas to Europe via the TurkStream pipeline, which runs through Turkey to Bulgaria.

“Small cuts usually lead to big cuts,” said Katerina Filippenko, principal analyst for global gas markets at consultancy Wood Mackenzie and CNN Business in Moscow. progressive gas cut through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline during the summer.

In June, Gazprom reduced the flow through a critical pipeline to 40% of capacity. By September no gas it was completely flowing.

“The risk of it going through Ukraine is really, really high,” Filippenko said, adding that he expected a complete blockage by the end of the year.

European natural gas prices rose 4% on Wednesday to €124 ($128) per MWh, still 64% below the level recorded earlier this year.

Europe would lose about 4 billion cubic meters of gas if Russia stopped exports through Ukraine. This represents just 1% of estimated gas demand in 2022. — said Filippenko between December and March.

If that happens, Europe will likely deal with it, at least for the time being.Continental gas storage facility Almost 95% filled, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe data. This is thanks to concerted efforts by EU member states to stock up on stocks during the summer months before the colder months, resulting in increased imports from alternative suppliers and liquefied natural gas.

And unseasonably mild weather in Europe at the beginning of winter limited the amount of gas that had to be taken out of these stocks.

In this regard, a complete cutoff of Moscow’s pipeline gas through Ukraine would result in “minimal” damage, Filippenko said.

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