After recapturing the city of Kherson, Ukraine continued to force Russian forces to speculate on their next move, pinning occupying forces in defensive positions and making them unavailable for offensive operations.
About 30,000 Russian troops who withdrew from the west bank of the Dnieper earlier this month were encamped in the Zaporizhia and Kherson regions in the 39th week of the war, Major General Vadim Skivitsky of the Ukrainian Military Intelligence Service told the Kyiv Post. .
“[The Russians] Waiting for our liberation offensive. [Kherson and] Crimea, and another one in the northern region of Crimea,” said Skibitskiy.
“The enemy is defending in the direction of Zaporizhia,” said the Ukrainian General Staff. “In the direction of Crivie Lee and Kherson, the enemy will build a stratified defensive system, improve the fortress equipment and the logistical support of the advanced forces, and at the positions of our troops and settlements on the right bank of the Dnipro River. We haven’t stopped firing.”
When announcing the withdrawal from the city of Kherson on November 9, Russia’s commander-in-chief in Ukraine, Aleksandr Slovykin, said he would release personnel to strengthen other fronts.
Russia prioritized the occupation of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions in the east, and Russian artillery attacked Ukrainian garrisons fruitlessly throughout the week.
The Ukrainian General Staff said it was still a Russian plan, but the soldiers were resisting it.
“The command of the Russian occupation forces plans to redeploy separate units that were withdrawn during the withdrawal from the right bank of the Dnipro river in the Kherson province in order to continue hostilities in the Donetsk and Luhansk provinces. Most of the people mobilized make up these units and we are very upset at the prospect of implementing the plans mentioned,” they said.
A further possible source of Russian restraint is Ukraine’s open intent to recapture Crimea, which was annexed by Russia in 2014.
To get there, the remaining Russian forces in Kherson or Zaporizhia had to be defeated, and the Russians seemed to expect an attack there.
Skivitsky said the timing of the counterattack in Crimea would depend largely on the “arms and ammunition” that Ukraine receives from its allies, but if these were in place, the troop movement could defeat the Russian troop movement. Stated.
“One area where we have an advantage over the Russian Federation is the very rapid movement or reorganization of troops,” he said. “For example, in preparation [counteroffensive] After the operation in the Kherson region, the Russian army redeployed the battalion’s tactical group from Kharkov and Donetsk to Kherson and Zaporizhia for a month, ”he said.
Phillips O’Brien said, “If the Ukrainians continue with the organized, logistic warfare they’ve been waging, their next move is probably to extend the range of their weapons to completely separate the Russian military and completely separate it from the military.” It would be an unsupported zone,” he said. , St. He teaches strategy at Andrews University.
That would mean driving a wedge through Zaporizhia into the Sea of Azov, cutting off the Russian forces in Kherson and Crimea from those in Donetsk and Luhansk, he said.
Despite the mobilization of 300,000 conscripts in September and October, Russia appears short-staffed.
Ukraine’s Chief of General Staff said Russia was preparing a law to conscript men in the occupied territories of Ukraine next year and was continuing to recruit prisoners in Russia.
They also said the Wagner Group, which is believed to have had some Russian successes in the Bakhmut area over the past few months, is recruiting mercenaries among Belgorod’s factory workers.
“According to an agreement with the management of the Oskol Electrometallurgical Plant, workers of conscription age will participate in military training at the base of the ‘Wagner’ PMC for 30 days with wage retention… Participants were asked to sign a contract with the private military [unit]said the staff.
Secret mobilization continues in Crimea, according to staff.
“In the city of Simferopol, on November 19, a meeting was held with representatives of the municipal government and the head of the village council, with the participation of the head of the so-called ‘law enforcement agency’. The main problem was that the determined quantitative indicators of mobilization were not met. From 21 November, representatives of the so-called “military commission” and “police” began distributing summonses in the aforementioned temporary occupied areas. ”
Armed with winter
Russia continues its hybrid warfare against Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure using Iranian drones.
Ten million Ukrainians have lost their electricity after dozens of Russian drones and missiles attacked energy infrastructure.
The regions of Odessa, Vinnitia, Sumy and Kyiv were the most affected, but on November 23, power outages spread to neighboring Moldova.
The World Health Organization says these attacks on energy infrastructure will leave many Ukrainians facing life-threatening conditions this winter, when temperatures in parts of the country are expected to drop below 20 degrees Celsius (-4F). I warn you that it means
Two to three million Ukrainians have had to leave their homes in search of warmer shelters, said Hans-Henri P. Kluge, WHO Regional Director for Europe.
“With a devastating energy crisis, a deepening mental health emergency, limited access to humanitarian aid and the risk of viral infections, this winter will be a formidable test for the Ukrainian healthcare system and the people of Ukraine,” Kluge said. said.
“Russia’s willful atrocities only deepen our resolve to uphold Ukraine’s fundamental right to defend itself and uphold the rules-based international order,” said U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin. said after chairing the seventh contact group of countries providing military assistance to the United States.
Hours before Wednesday’s barrage of attacks by Russia, in a largely symbolic political move, the European Parliament declared Russia a “state sponsor of terrorism” for these drone attacks, with 494 lawmakers in favor, 58 voted against and 44 abstained.
The resolution states that “the deliberate attacks and atrocities committed by the Russian Federation against Ukrainian civilians, the destruction of civilian infrastructure and other serious violations of human rights and international humanitarian law amount to acts of terrorism.” Stated.
Looking ahead, Friday marks ten months of war. With the cold snap coming, Russian President Vladimir Putin wants Ukraine to be determined.