As Environment Canada calls the southern Alberta precipitation forecast a coin toss, farmers are expressing concerns beyond the control of Mother Nature.
“We’re seeing, maybe it’s in the extreme southwest of Alberta, being quite dry still,” said David Lee, the manager of the National AgroClimate Information Service.
Coming off the heels of 2024, staggered snowfalls mean strong moisture levels are still far from guaranteed this year.
“We saw fairly significant amounts of precipitation in September, somewhere near 50 millimeters fell in Lethbridge,” said Brian Proctor, an Environment Canada meteorologist.
“But October and November were exceptionally dry. Even December was a little bit below normal, but still fairly dry and that trend has certainly continued as we’ve moved into the first part of January.”
Proctor said it means the weather is currently too volatile to predict how spring and summer will go.
“Bit of a flip a coin, if you want to put it that way, at this point.”
But even as the future of the climate remains as mysterious as ever, farmers on the ground say they aren’t worried about a drought in 2025 as things stand.
“(I’m) optimistic on the weather, I think we’re going to be okay. But, of course, (the) weather can change in a heartbeat, so, right now it looks good,” said Dave Bishop, director for Region One of Alberta Grains.
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“Ask me in a couple months — it might be a different tune.”
While irrigation-based farmers are watching the mountain peaks for snow levels, Ken Coles, executive director with Farming Smarter, says dry land farmers are feeling good about 2025.
“I think as far as dry land farmers are concerned, we’ve had some decent fall moisture and there’s still lots of time to get some more, so why not be optimistic?”
However, the optimism ends there.
Potential tariffs proposed by incoming U.S. president, Donald Trump are a new problem that threaten farmers in Alberta.
“That’s one things that’s on my mind, is the tariffs, because we don’t know what president Trump, when he becomes president, is going to actually do — if it’s going to affect agriculture and whether we’re going to have to retaliate and is it going to be on the Ag side and does it just continue and continue,” said Bishop.
Even within Canada, Coles says there are new concerns from government decisions.
From the carbon tax to the proposed American tariffs, he says the weather has taken a backseat in the minds of many.
“You used to worry more about the weather, now you’re worrying about policy,” said Coles.
It’s a problem that could affect everyone living in the agri-food corridor.
“Nobody wins when there’s tariffs. The US won’t win; we won’t win,” said Bishop.
“The farmers will get hurt; the businessmen will get hurt. Just everybody gets hurt by tariffs.”
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