New Brunswick election call expected Thursday as Higgs looks to stay in power

New Brunswickers are headed to the polls.

It’s anticipated the writ period will kick off Thursday morning when Premier Blaine Higgs visits the lieutenant-governor, launching a four-week campaign against a backdrop of political controversy and divisive topics.

Under the province’s fixed-date election law, the vote will take place on Oct. 21.

Of the major parties, Higgs’ Progressive Conservative Party holds 25 seats, the Liberal Party headed by Susan Holt has 16 seats and David Coon’s Green Party has three seats.

Twenty-five seats are required for a majority.

According to a Narrative Research poll released on Aug. 23, Holt remains most preferred as premier. The poll found 44 per cent of decided voters said they would vote for the Liberals and 33 per cent would choose the PCs. Support for the Green Party sat at 17 per cent and support for the NDP was four per cent.

Two-thirds of residents polled said they were dissatisfied with the current government’s performance, while one-quarter said they were satisfied.

The results were part of an independent telephone survey of 400 adult New Brunswickers conducted between July 31 and Aug. 17, with overall results accurate to within ± 4.9 percentage points, 95 out of 100 times.

Fracture within PC Party

Prior to this legislated election date, there was wide speculation an early election would be called.

A major fracture in the PC party had occurred over Higgs’ decision to change the province’s policy on gender identity in schools: Policy 713.

The new rules require students to get parental consent before teachers can use their preferred names and pronouns. Several members — including cabinet ministers — publicly dissented against Higgs’ leadership over the file, leading the premier to the precipice of calling an early election.

The early vote didn’t happen, but a wave of resignations did, leaving Higgs scrambling to fill cabinet positions and defending against accusations his party was a sinking ship.

Higgs has also faced criticism over his party’s policies and views on abortion and climate change.

In May, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau told a news conference he believed Higgs doesn’t respect a “woman’s right to choose.”

The prime minister was referring to a New Brunswick regulation that prohibits public funding for abortions administered outside hospitals, a rule that was blamed for the closure earlier this year of Clinic 554, a private care provider in Fredericton.

Promises already made

There have already been election-style announcements and promises made.

Earlier this summer, Higgs announced the PCs would cut the Harmonized Sales Tax by two percentage points — to 13 per cent — if they are re-elected.

Liberal Leader Holt has vowed to maintain a balanced budget every year, should she become premier after the election. The party is also promising 30 new collaborative care clinics costing $115.2 million over four years.

Meanwhile, the Greens have promised a power bill rebate for people making under $70,000, which would save an average of $25 a month, costing $60 million annually.

Both the Liberals and Greens have pitched themselves to progressive voters as the strategic choice to replace Higgs.

When asked last week about strategic voting and vote splitting, Green Leader Coon said it’s not something he worries about.

He rejects comparisons to the Liberals, who he says have a habit of campaigning to the left and governing to the right.

“People look at where they’re at, they look at the crises that they’re facing and this has been brought about by both Liberal and Conservative governments over the last number of years,” he said.

The Liberals’ main promise is 30 new collaborative care clinics costing $115.2 million over four years and the Greens have promised a power bill rebate for people making under $70,000 that would save an average of $25 a month, costing $60 million annually

— with files from The Canadian Press and Global News’ Silas Brown

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