Despite some airlines collapsing or consolidating, Canadians air passengers can expect more seats and even some deals heading into the Thanksgiving long weekend this year.
Data from aviation analytics company Cirium shows that across the major Canadian airlines, total capacity is expected to be up by about 30,000 seats for the Oct. 11-14 weekend compared to Thanksgiving dates in 2023.
That’s despite the closure of Lynx Air, which folded in February of this year, and the consolidation of Swoop into WestJet.
While Air Canada, Air Transat, Flair and WestJet are all expected to see low-single-digit increases in seat capacity, the bulk of the improvements will come from Porter Airlines, with a jump of 37 per cent year-over-year.
“Most notably, Porter has been expanding aggressively, not just across Canada, but North America,” says Amra Durakovic, head of communications for Flight Centre Travel Group.
Seat capacity is more of a mixed picture for the Thanksgiving weekend in the domestic market, with WestJet, Flair and Air Transat seeing declines, while Air Canada posts a modest gain and Porter again leads the pack in growth.
Cirium notes that Porter has been scaling up in recent years, with plans for an additional 34 jets currently on order.
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“They’ve expanded their fleet considerably,” says Jim Hetzel, director at Cirium. “However, I think overall they’re charging a little bit more for that.”
Cirium’s analysis of domestic fares as of July show Porter is the only airline reporting a year-over-year price jump of four per cent. Air Canada’s average fares are down one per cent while other airlines report sizeable annual declines of 14-17 per cent.
As of July, the cheapest one-way domestic fare in Canada belonged to Flair at roughly $84, while Air Canada topped pricing at around $300. Cirium’s analysis is based on economy class airfare before taxes or additional fees.
But Lesley Keyter, who runs the Travel Lady agency in Calgary, tells Global News to be wary of what’s included in the price of a ticket when you’re booking, as airlines are increasingly asking travellers to pay for carry-on baggage or seat selection.
“If you see a really cheap fare and then you start adding on, ‘I have to pay this much for a seat and this much for a checked bag and this much for carry on,’ at the end of the day, it goes up a lot,” she says.
Keyter says that she’s seen airfares decline heading into Thanksgiving because, despite the loss of Lynx, airlines are getting more competitive with each other for Canadian’s money.
“If we’re talking about domestic travel and for the next couple of weeks or so, I think there’s a lot of empty seats out there and the airlines are vying with each other to fill those seats,” she says.
Durakovic says that more seats generally translates to cheaper airfare thanks to more competition in Canadian skies. As such, she says she’s also noticed “remarkable deals” on airfare for the Thanksgiving weekend.
Those flying from Toronto to Vancouver can get a round-trip ticket for $500 from the likes of Air Canada and WestJet, she says, but those willing to depart on the Saturday before Thanksgiving could scoop airfare around $200 on Porter with a Monday return.
Durakovic recommends that, whenever possible, Canadians keep their dates flexible and avoid flying when others are also trying to book. She says that right now, Thursday, Oct. 10 is looking like the more expensive day to fly “across the board” ahead of the Thanksgiving long weekend.
Keyter says the off-season months like October have become more popular among Canadians who are flying overseas. Crowds are usually less dense in the hotspots in Europe and Asia, and airlines are eager to offer deals to accommodate flights during the shoulder seasons, she explains.
“So a nicer time for people to go away is when it’s a little bit quieter, and they’re scoring because they’re getting lower airfares,” she says.
— with files from Global News’s Anne Gaviola
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