Why B.C. election could serve as a ‘trial run’ for next federal campaign

The B.C. election is officially underway, and the results will have implications for politics in Ottawa regardless of who wins, political analysts say.

The B.C. NDP government is running a tight race for re-election against the surging Conservative Party of B.C., which has become its chief rival after the official Opposition BC United — formerly the BC Liberals — suspended their campaign amid sagging poll numbers.

Analysts say the B.C. Conservatives have tapped into the same desire for change that has fuelled the rise of Pierre Poilievre and the federal Conservatives. Although the provincial Tories are not enjoying a similar double-digit polling lead, the possibility of a Conservative government in B.C. — which hasn’t happened in nearly 100 years — may spell further trouble for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and solidify Poilievre’s potential for a blue wave.

“You could think of it as a trial run for the federal election to come,” said Stewart Prest, a political science lecturer at the University of British Columbia.

“I think all federal parties will be watching the provincial election quite closely to see what arguments work with voters at this moment in time, because in many ways, B.C. is a microcosm for the country as a whole.”

The issues driving the B.C. election are much the same as those expected to drive the next federal campaign, including housing affordability, economic concerns and crime.

The average price for a home in B.C. is the highest of any province or territory, at $939,792, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association. In Vancouver, the rental vacancy rate is less than one per cent, the latest Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation report found, and supply only grew by 2.7 per cent.

Efforts to curb the toxic drug overdose crisis in the province, meanwhile, have yielded only modest results. The provincial coroner says 1,158 people died from overdoses in the first half of this year — a rate of about six people per day, and just a nine per cent decrease from the same record-setting period last year.

Prest said B.C. has long been used by the federal Liberals as a model for effective left-of-centre politics that the party can follow. One example is the Canada Builds program, which explicitly echoed the B.C. Builds initiative that seeks to spur more housing construction by reducing red tape and releasing a catalogue of pre-approved housing designs.

But Poilievre has taken an opposite approach and cast B.C. as an example of everything wrong with NDP and Liberal policies — pointing to everything from the spillover effects of B.C.’s drug decriminalization program to sky-high housing prices and slow homebuilding.

B.C. NDP Leader David Eby appears to have recognized the Trudeau brand is under pressure even in his historically progressive province.

Although he enjoyed a relatively friendly relationship with Trudeau as premier, Eby has upped his criticism of the prime minister in recent months, including over health-care spending to the provinces and bail reform.

Ahead of the official campaign, Eby promised a re-elected NDP government would scrap British Columbia’s long-standing consumer price on carbon and shift the burden to “big polluters” if the federal government dropped its requirement for the law.

B.C. was the first province to adopt a consumer carbon price — under a more centrist BC Liberal government, no less — but the announcement showed Eby’s recognition that Poilievre’s unrelenting attacks on the “carbon tax” have made an impact among voters worried about the cost of living.

Eby has also had to defend himself against Poilievre’s criticism of B.C.’s drug decriminalization pilot project, and is now vowing tougher measures to combat the overdose crisis and inner-city crime, including expanding involuntary care to people suffering from both mental illness and drug addiction. 

If he’s re-elected, analysts say Eby will likely tone down the rhetoric against both Trudeau and Poilievre — who Eby has said is running a “baloney factory” — to ensure a good working relationship with both. But there will still be tensions, they add.

“If Trudeau remains a weakened figure — which he most likely will — Eby may grow frustrated with (Trudeau’s) inability to deliver for B.C. on multiple fronts,” said Hamish Telford, an associate professor of political science at the University of the Fraser Valley.

A win by the B.C. Conservatives led by John Rustad would certainly raise those tensions with a Liberal government in Ottawa.

Rustad has vowed to axe B.C.’s consumer carbon price on his first day as premier, which would trigger the federal backstop system that applies in jurisdictions without their own carbon pricing that meets federally set criteria. That move would likely spark a war of words with Ottawa akin to the fights with B.C.’s neighbours Alberta and Saskatchewan.

Rustad has also come out strongly against the federal government’s immigration and climate policies, even sometimes questioning whether it’s worth fighting climate change at all.

If Rustad becomes premier, Prest said Trudeau may see his government as a bulwark against a growing rightward shift in the provinces.

“It becomes one more foil for the federal Liberals to say, ‘This is what we need to be in office to guard against … You need a more centrist alternative federally just to demand some sort of balance,’” he said.

But Telford said a Rustad government may not have an easy relationship with Poilievre as prime minister either, especially if Poilievre pursues a cost-cutting approach to governing that impacts what provinces receive for services like health care and housing.

“What conservative-led provinces will discover is that the two levels have different interests,” Telford said. “Just because they’re led by same party doesn’t mean it’s smooth sailing.”

Either outcome in the B.C. election may leave federal NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh isolated, meanwhile.

Singh has been trying to position his party as the true alternative to Poilievre’s Conservatives as the Liberals sink in the polls. But the NDP remains a distant third place and faced a tough byelection battle in a Winnipeg riding this month.

Should Rustad’s Conservatives win, it could spell trouble for the federal NDP’s ability to hold its traditional B.C. strongholds in the next election.

Even if Eby is re-elected, however, Telford said he may not be willing to campaign with Singh in a federal campaign given the direction the political winds appear to be blowing.

“If Eby was actively out there campaigning for Singh, it would get relations with a future prime minister Poilievre off on an even worse foot,” Telford said.

“Maybe (Eby and Singh would work together) if we didn’t know the result, but not when the federal election is looking more and more like a foregone conclusion.”

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